RMB exchange rate stability expectations to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets-innawoods

The stability of the exchange rate is expected to increase the RMB assets attractive lifting after the January shock weakening, this week the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, the exchange rate both rose sharply. Analysts pointed out that the RMB exchange rate will continue to strengthen the momentum of the stage. With the return of the stable exchange rate expectations, the future of RMB asset attractiveness is expected to increase. To promote the RMB exchange rate stabilized by the dollar index fell sharply during the Spring Festival, Hongkong RMB Offshore CNH exchange rate continued to rise and other factors, the year of the first trading day (Monday), the central parity of RMB exchange rate and the spot exchange rate were significantly stronger. Refresh since January 4th this year, nearly a month high at the same time in the U.S. dollar exchange rate of RMB on the same day, the spot exchange rate of RMB exchange rate reform since July 2005, also hit the biggest one-day rise. In February 16th, although a substantial overnight dollar index 0.82% yuan to continue to rebound, consolidation in the vicinity of 6.50 onshore and offshore spot exchange rate CNH. Overall, since February, the RMB exchange rate in the offshore and onshore market prices, domestic RMB exchange rate level is more consistent, cross-border arbitrage space basically eliminated. It is worth noting that since February RMB forward exchange rate trend further shows that market participants for the depreciation of the RMB is expected to shift the RMB short hit confidence. The latest data from Bloomberg show that as of February 16th early this month, the offshore market of RMB against the U.S. dollar 1 year contract has risen to about 2%, far higher than the domestic RMB exchange rate rose about 1.1%. In addition, the futures market trading market also shows that investors expected for the year probability of RMB to us dollar exchange rate fell below 7, which decreased to 22% 28% years ago or so. For the overall performance of the monkey year the RMB exchange rate, market participants generally believe that the Fed rate hike resistance increased significantly and the economic recovery in the euro area and Japan economy main body prospects, and basically stable China again behind the RMB exchange rate against a basket of currencies, the RMB exchange rate after the Spring Festival to jointly promote the "multi counterattack", repel the market speculative short. The overall trend of global economic and financial environment at the present stage, the dollar and the global major non US currencies are lack of overall medium-term strong foundation, the RMB exchange rate again stabilized, in the future for a long period of time will be in a favorable external environment. The market is expected to begin to reverse the overall health of the international foreign exchange market during the Spring Festival, the international foreign exchange dealer futony said, a week after the dollar against a basket of non US currencies fell sharply across the board, the main source of the market before the Fed since 2016 to further increase the interest rate expectations significantly subsided. Only two months after the history of the fed to raise interest rates, the media have predicted that if the global economy continues to slump, the Fed or forced to cut interest rates below zero. Futony analysis pointed out that, taking into account the central bank developed economies confidence in the economic recovery is faltering, the dollar index is expected to continue to show a slightly weaker trend. And once there is a worrisome heavy economic data release, the Fed does not line up

汇率稳定预期增强 人民币资产吸引力料提升   经过1月份的震荡走软之后,本周以来人民币对美元汇率中间价、即期汇价双双大幅上涨。分析人士指出,人民币汇率的阶段性转强势头将延续。随着汇率稳定预期的回归,未来一段时间人民币资产吸引力有望增强。   人民币汇率趋稳   受春节期间美元指数大幅下挫、人民币香港离岸CNH汇价持续上涨等因素推动,猴年首个交易日(周一),人民币汇率中间价、即期汇价双双大幅走强。在当日人民币对美元汇率中间价刷新自今年1月4日以来近一个多月新高的同时,人民币即期汇价也创出2005年7月汇改以来最大单日涨幅。   2月16日,尽管隔夜美元指数出现0.82%的较大幅度反弹,人民币在岸即期汇价以及离岸CNH汇价继续在6.50附近盘整。整体来看,随着2月以来人民币汇率在离岸和在岸市场上的上涨,境内外人民币汇价水平更趋一致,跨境投机套利空间基本消除。   值得注意的是,2月以来境外人民币远期汇率走势进一步显示,市场参与方对于人民币的贬值预期出现转变,人民币空头信心遭受打击。来自彭博的最新数据显示,截至2月16日早盘,本月内离岸市场人民币对美元汇率1年期远期合约累计上涨约2%,远高于同期境内人民币汇率1.1%左右的涨幅。此外,期货市场交易市况也显示,投资者对于年内人民币对美元汇率跌破7的预期概率,也由此前的28%下降至22%左右。   对于猴年开年人民币汇率的整体表现,市场人士普遍认为,美联储加息阻力显著增大,欧元区、日本等主要经济体经济复苏前景黯淡,以及中国再度力挺人民币对一篮子货币汇率的基本稳定,共同推动了春节之后人民币汇率“多方大反攻”,击退市场投机空头。综合现阶段全球经济、金融环境的整体走向来看,目前美元及全球主要非美货币汇率整体都缺乏中期走强的基础,人民币汇率再度趋稳,在未来较长一段时间内将处于较有利外部环境。   市场预期开始扭转   对于春节期间国际外汇市场的整体运行状况,国际外汇交易商富拓表示,此前一周美元对一篮子非美货币汇率全线大幅下挫,主要源自此前市场对美联储2016年进一步上调利率的预期显著消退。在美联储历史性加息之后仅两个月,媒体纷纷预测,如果全球经济继续低迷的话,美联储或被迫将利率降至负值。   富拓分析指出,考虑到发达经济体央行对经济复苏的信心出现动摇,美元指数预计继续呈现小幅走软的态势。而一旦有令人担忧的重磅经济数据发布,美联储不排除推出震动金融市场的反向举措。整体而言,未来较长一段时间内美元走势依然脆弱,而日本和欧洲在经济增长面临问题情况下,其政策导向也将继续以保持其货币竞争力为主。   招商证券[4.84% 资金 研报](600999,股吧)认为,2015年年末美联储加息引发的动荡远超出市场预期,归根结底在于金融危机后的货币宽松没有改善全球经济的增长前景,资产价格膨胀只是流动性充裕的结果,没有经济基本面的支撑。整体来看,由于全球长期需求不足、供给侧存在结构性问题,一旦美国继续收紧货币政策,则可能成为暴露的“裸泳者”。   在人民币汇率的多空博弈方面,交易员普遍表示,年初以来人民币汇率波动剧烈。在此过程中,市场参与方对于美联储收紧货币的负面预期,是导致人民币汇率难以摆脱弱势格局的主要原因之一。上周末央行行长周小川在接受媒体采访时称,人民币对一篮子货币会继续保持稳定、中国国际收支状况不支持人民币持续贬值。这在很大的程度上扭转了此前市场对人民币汇率较负面的预期。周小川强调,尽管近期全球金融市场上不确定因素较多,与正常时期不同,也有一些投机力量在瞄准中国,但央行不会让投机力量主导市场情绪。   在人民币汇率猴年大涨开局之后,对于人民币汇率未来一段时间的走向,目前市场主流观点认为,随着人民币汇率阶段性强势的确立,未来较长时间内市场预期会持续扭转。来自澳新银行、平安证券等机构的最新观点认为,央行具备对抗投机力量和应对国际资本流动的能力,央行的最新政策表态将使人民币汇率的稳健预期得到巩固。   资本流动格局将改善   在A股休市的一周时间内,海外股市、原油等风险资产价格大跌,浓烈的避险情绪推动资金持续涌入欧元、日元等阶段性避险货币,以及黄金等避险资产,新兴市场在此期间的吸引力表现难尽如人意。   来自EPFR的最新数据显示,过去两周韩国、印度等新兴经济体国际资金流动状况再度恶化。分析人士指出,相关国家本币汇率的波动风险,很大程度上影响了国际资本流入。对于中国的跨境资本流动形势,申万宏源(000166,股吧)认为,在美联储加息推迟以及货币政策普遍宽松的背景下,新兴市场国家将迎来喘息机会,资金外流压力会明显减弱。对于中国而言,投资者应正确认识“资本外流”和“资本外逃”的区别。考虑到近期相关市场表现表明人民币汇率稳定预期正逐渐形成,资金外流压力有望持续减缓。   招商证券指出,欧洲央行自欧债危机之后持续加码的刺激措施,反而导致欧洲商业银行利润大幅萎缩,在很大程度上是欧洲经济结构性改革滞后和财政政策有心无力的结果。中国正在推进供给侧改革,如果能够取得预想效果,人民币资产可能再迎牛市。   周二,央行金融研究所所长姚余栋发表专栏文章称,目前人民币事实上已经是国际货币。同时,从实体经济来看,中国经济增长稳健,外汇储备比较充裕,经常性账户顺差大,外债余额非常小且没有错配风险。在全球经济可能出现流动性短缺问题的背景下,人民币有望进一步成为占优的强势货币。   分析人士认为,在中国经济转型深入推进的背景下,随着人民币汇率稳定预期的回归,包括股市在内的人民币资产的吸引力有望逐步回升。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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