The difficulty of High Yield Bond Fund cautious bond band operation increase-vidown

The difficulty of High Yield Bond Fund cautious bond – reporter Li Liang band operation increase although interest rates downward trend still support fund managers optimistic expectations on the bond market Manniu, but their cautious mood has obvious warming. This, in the pre investment in high-yield bonds found on the show is obvious. A number of fund managers believe that the current economic slowdown trend has not changed significantly, but the economic restructuring process, contrary to expectation of the "black swan" appeared frequently, to increase the difficulty of the bond market investment. In their view, the course of the economic downturn, yields high yield although attractive, but the potential risk of default is also increasing, need careful observation. Just against the logic of "quality and fund manager in weaker exchange, Chinese Securities Journal reporter found that although the rigid payment is still an important logical investment fund manager of the bond market, but its quality has decreased significantly. Shanghai, a debt based fund manager told reporters that although the current market, "a real case to break the rigid payment, but with the continued economic slowdown, and local governments to maintain rigid payment difficulty, the next few years is expected to break the rigid payment" case will increase dramatically. Therefore, now the bond market investment logic, to raise the proportion of credit risk control, especially for the high yield bond investment, the risk of default must be careful. Fund Gongwen Chen pointed out that the current credit risk is still in the growing process, suggestions are cautious about the low level of credit debt. While the high-grade credit bonds, because credit spreads are still at historic lows, the future once the interest rate debt continued to adjust, there may be a certain valuation risk. Therefore, the short term should hold a combination of flexibility, shorten the duration, see more than move, left for the king. A private equity fund’s fixed income department is responsible for that, in addition to concerns about "rigid payment", the lack of liquidity of high-yield bonds and bond investment are important factors affecting such. He pointed out that the economic downturn caused more defaults concerns, causing investors to buy or hold high yield bonds, lack of confidence. This upgrade and high yield bond yields, will also increase the risk of investment, namely when the outbreak of an event of default, the holder will be difficult through the two levels of market transactions to avoid risks and can only be held passively waiting to resolve the crisis. In addition to increase the difficulty of band operation concerns about the risk of default, many fund managers also pointed out that, unlike in previous years, this year the bond market Manniu bond market, although there will be fluctuations in trading opportunities, but the operation difficulty will increase significantly, hope that through the market fluctuation probability of obtaining excess returns are reduced. Central Fund believes that the bond market this year may be the top narrow range pattern under the bottom of the face, in 2015 the bond bull market is difficult to copy, rate of return is difficult to have a substantial downside. The central bank’s policy attitude or a period of time in the future will become the core factors affecting the market. In January of this year, credit than expected volume there are incentives in two aspects: on the one hand, banks "benefit from early morning delivery and deposit effect than cancel factors; on the other hand, supervision theory

基金慎对高收益债券 债市波段操作难度加大   □本报记者 李良   虽然利率下行趋势依然支撑着基金经理对债市“慢牛”的乐观预期,但他们的谨慎情绪已经明显升温。这一点,在对中高收益债券的投资预判上显现的尤为明显。多位基金经理认为,目前经济增速放缓的趋势尚未出现明显改变,而且经济结构转型过程中,意料之外的“黑天鹅”频频出现,给债券市场的投资增加了难度。在他们看来,经济下行过程中,高收益债券的收益率虽然吸引人,但其潜在的违约风险也在加大,需要谨慎观察。   “刚兑逻辑”成色渐淡   在与基金经理的交流中,中国证券报记者发现,虽然“刚性兑付”依然是基金经理投资债市的一个重要逻辑,但其成色已经有显著下降。   上海某债基的基金经理向记者表示,虽然目前债市中,真正打破“刚性兑付”的案例寥寥,但伴随着经济增速放缓持续,以及地方政府维持“刚性兑付”难度加大,预计未来几年打破“刚性兑付”的案例会有较大幅度增加。因此,现在债券市场的投资逻辑,不得不提高控制信用风险的比重,尤其是针对高收益债券的投资,一定要小心其中的违约风险。   万家基金陈工文指出,目前信用风险仍处于不断加大过程中,建议对中低等级信用债持谨慎态度。而中高等级信用债方面,由于信用利差仍处于历史低位,未来一旦利率债持续调整,也可能会有一定的估值风险。因此,短期内宜保持组合弹性,缩短久期,多看少动,剩者为王。   一位私募基金的固定收益部门负责人认为,除了担忧“刚性兑付”外,目前高收益债券的流动性缺失也是影响此类债券投资的重要因素。他指出,对经济下滑引发更多违约事件的担忧,致使投资者买入或持有高收益债券的信心不足。这在提升了高收益债券收益率的同时,也会增加投资风险,即当违约事件爆发时,持有者将很难通过二级市场交易来回避风险,只能被动持有等待危机化解。   波段操作难度加大   除了对违约风险的担忧外,多位基金经理还指出,与往年债市“慢牛”不同,今年债券市场虽然也会有波动交易机会,但操作难度将会显著加大,希望通过市场波动获得超额收益的概率正在降低。   中欧基金认为,今年债券市场可能面临上有顶下有底的窄幅震荡格局,2015年的债券牛市难复制,收益率难有大幅下行空间。央行的政策态度或将成为未来一段时间影响市场的核心因素。今年1月份,信贷超预期放量存在两方面的诱因:一方面,银行受“早投放早受益”及存贷比取消因素影响;另一方面,监管层也希望通过金融支持工业,在稳增长的基础上调结构。中欧基金认为,在供给侧改革的背景下,监管层不会放弃需求端的刺激。配合信贷投放,在较为宽松的货币环境中监管层将进一步深化改革。   陈工文表示,在货币市场方面,央行年前投放的流动性面临到期,截至目前依旧呈现净回笼的态势。虽然市面上尚未出现大面积的流动性紧张,但从边际上看央行有意维持的是流动性的稳定而非流动性的泛滥,因此高杠杆操作需要谨慎。他同时指出,央行从去年起开始吹风的利率走廊机制进入实践阶段,公开市场操作已经被提升到了一个新的高度,建议未来可以多关注公开市场操作的价和量来理解央行在货币政策上的态度。债券市场方面,受一系列经济数据利好的影响,长端利率有一定程度的回调。节后一级市场招标已看到有所放量,同时未来供给压力会较大,因此逢低吸入可能需要等待更好的机会。 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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